The Desk

Fantasy football numbers, explained. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. RSS

Justice Hill ran 65 yards past our number2026-11-06 · Final Whistle, NFL Week 9 TNF: Jaguars 33, Ravens 10. Our sealed numbers for Hill, Flowers, Henry, Lawrence and Washington vs the box score.
D'Andre Swift ran in three and beat our number2026-11-03 · Final Whistle, NFL Week 8 MNF: Bears 34, Seahawks 17. Our sealed numbers for Swift, Williams, Burden, Smith-Njigba and Darnold vs the box score.
Tyler Allgeier scored 36.10. We had him at 8.23.2026-11-02 · NFL Week 8 Sunday afternoon, graded: 107 of our 192 sealed full-PPR numbers landed within five points. Allgeier, Higgins and Burrow beat theirs; Bijan Robinson missed.
Jayden Daniels won, but missed our number2026-11-02 · Final Whistle, NFL Week 8 SNF: Commanders 27, Eagles 10. Our sealed numbers for Daniels, McKee, White, Barkley, Diggs and Goedert vs the box score.
Packers 27, Panthers 19: Golden, Bryce Young vs Our Numbers2026-10-30 · Final Whistle, NFL Week 8 TNF: Packers 27, Panthers 19. Our sealed numbers for Bryce Young, Love, Jacobs, Hubbard, Watson and Golden vs the box score.
Panthers at Packers Week 8: Our Fantasy Numbers for TNF2026-10-29 · Thursday Night Football, NFL Week 8: Panthers at Packers. Our sealed full-PPR numbers for Bryce Young, Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs, Hubbard, Watson and McMillan.
Cowboys 38, Eagles 21: Williams, Lamb vs Our Numbers2026-10-29 · Final Whistle, NFL Week 7 MNF: Cowboys 38, Eagles 21. Our sealed numbers for Javonte Williams, Lamb, Prescott, Pierce and Barkley vs the box score.
Week 7 Fantasy Projections vs Results: 60 Players Graded2026-10-26 · Week 7 receipts: our pre-kickoff numbers for 60 players against the box score. 32 beat our number, 28 fell short. Tony Pollard was our biggest miss (+26.44).
Seahawks 20, Chiefs 3: Smith-Njigba, Walker vs Our Numbers2026-10-26 · Final Whistle, NFL Week 7: Seahawks 20, Chiefs 3. Our sealed numbers for Smith-Njigba, Walker, Mahomes, Emanuel Wilson and Darnold vs the box score.
Rams 35, Raiders 21: Bowers, Nacua vs Our Week 7 Numbers2026-10-26 · Final Whistle, NFL Week 7: Rams 35, Raiders 21. Our sealed numbers for Bowers, Nacua, Kyren Williams, Jeanty and Stafford against the box score.
Lions 20, Packers 17: Gibbs, St. Brown vs Our Numbers2026-10-26 · Final Whistle, NFL Week 7: Lions 20, Packers 17. Our sealed numbers for Gibbs, St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Goff and Jordan Love against the box score.
Broncos 30, Cardinals 16: McBride, Nix vs Our Numbers2026-10-26 · Final Whistle, NFL Week 7: Broncos 30, Cardinals 16. Our sealed numbers for McBride, Bo Nix, RJ Harvey, Brissett and Michael Wilson against the box score.
Giants 27, Texans 21 (OT): Skattebo, Nabers vs Our Numbers2026-10-26 · Final Whistle, NFL Week 7: Giants 27, Texans 21 in OT. Our sealed numbers for Skattebo, Nabers, Stroud, Nico Collins and Isaiah Likely vs the box score.
Bengals 35, Ravens 13: Burrow, Flowers vs Our Numbers2026-10-26 · Final Whistle, NFL Week 7: Bengals 35, Ravens 13. Our sealed numbers for Burrow, Higgins, Flowers, Huntley and Derrick Henry against the box score.
Buccaneers 43, Panthers 13: Irving, Young vs Our Numbers2026-10-26 · Final Whistle, NFL Week 7: Buccaneers 43, Panthers 13. Our sealed numbers for Irving, Mayfield, Bryce Young, Hubbard and McMillan against the box score.
Dolphins 28, Jets 25: Willis, Geno Smith vs Our Numbers2026-10-26 · Final Whistle, NFL Week 7: Dolphins 28, Jets 25. Our sealed numbers for Willis, Geno Smith, Mason Taylor, Gordon and Garrett Wilson vs the box score.
Vikings 16, Colts 10: Taylor, Jefferson vs Our Numbers2026-10-26 · Final Whistle, NFL Week 7: Vikings 16, Colts 10. Our sealed numbers for Taylor, Aaron Jones, Jefferson, Hockenson and Daniel Jones against the box score.
Browns 27, Titans 24: Pollard, Judkins vs Our Numbers2026-10-26 · Final Whistle, NFL Week 7: Browns 27, Titans 24. Our sealed numbers for Pollard, Judkins, Watson, Fannin and Cam Ward against the box score.
Falcons 29, 49ers 20: Purdy, Penix vs Our Week 7 Numbers2026-10-26 · Final Whistle, NFL Week 7: Falcons 29, 49ers 20. Our sealed numbers for Purdy, McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, Penix and London against the box score.
Steelers 16, Saints 10: Warren, Shough vs Our Numbers2026-10-26 · Final Whistle, NFL Week 7: Steelers 16, Saints 10 in Paris. Our sealed numbers for Warren, Rodgers, Shough, Olave and Kamara against the box score.
Is a WR's Season Average a Good Projection?2026-10-25 · Jaxon Smith-Njigba averaged 27.48 a game; our Week 7 number was 21.10. See all ten top WRs in our frozen table, each under his own average.
Brock Bowers Week 8 Projection vs Season Average2026-10-25 · Our Week 8 numbers put Brock Bowers at 14.81 vs a 20.55 average, only 0.34 above Trey McBride. Live desk numbers, not yet sealed.
What Does the Value Gap Up-Triangle Mean in Fantasy?2026-10-25 · Value Gap is our weekly number minus a player's season average. Learn what the up and down triangles mean and why they aren't a market read.
Tyson Bagent Week 8 Projection: Why He Tops Our Gap List2026-10-25 · Tyson Bagent tops our live Week 8 gap list: 8.86 vs a 4.05 average. What that means for superflex and 2QB lineups, and what it doesn't.
Tyler Warren Week 8 Projection: 12.19 vs 13.98 Average2026-10-25 · Tyler Warren's live Week 8 projection is 12.19 vs a 13.98 season average (full-PPR, not sealed). All five TEs on our card sit under their own averages.
Trey McBride Week 8 Projection: 14.47 vs 17.18 Average2026-10-25 · Our Week 8 number for Trey McBride is 14.47 against a 17.18 season average. Why it sits under his average and why that is a price, not a sit call.
Season Average vs Projection: Smith-Njigba Trade Talk2026-10-25 · Smith-Njigba averaged 27.48 entering Week 7; our sealed number was 21.10. The ten widest gaps below a season average, and how to use them.
Why is Sam LaPorta projected under his average in Week 8?2026-10-25 · Sam LaPorta's live Week 8 number is 12.48 vs a 15.32 average. All five TEs on our card sit under theirs. Why a gap is a price, not a verdict.
Brock Purdy Week 7 Projection vs Season Average2026-10-25 · Brock Purdy averages 22.33 but our sealed Week 7 number is 20.56. See ten QBs, our number against each season average, and who tops the list.
Prediction Market vs Sportsbook Lines: Same Bet?2026-10-25 · A prediction market's 'more than 75' and a sportsbook's 'O/U 75.5' settle differently. Here's how our prop desk checks the match first.
Fantasy Points Left on Bench: What Was Your Fault?2026-10-25 · Points left on your bench mix a catchable lineup mistake with pure hindsight. See how the split works and how the pre-lock notice helps.
Why Is a Player Missing From My Fantasy Draft Board?2026-10-25 · A filter may be hiding that player, not a rival drafter. See how the ProDraftStats board now names every active filter in its title.
Why Is Trey McBride's Projection Under His Average?2026-10-25 · Trey McBride has made our TE list four weeks running, each time projected under his season average. What a repeat name does and doesn't tell you.
Why Your Fantasy Cheat Sheet Goes Stale After Pick One2026-10-25 · A printed cheat sheet goes stale after the first pick. See how a live draft board re-prices every pick in about 30 ms.
Why Did My League Rival Add That Receiver?2026-10-25 · A league tape designed to show who added, dropped or swapped in your league, and to say plainly when no reason is on record.
Kelce Projection Under His Average: Should You Worry?2026-10-25 · Our Week 8 number for Travis Kelce is 10.56 vs his 12.38 average. All five TEs project under their own averages. Live desk numbers.
Is Jahmyr Gibbs's 30.74 Average a Real Forecast?2026-10-25 · Jahmyr Gibbs averages 30.74 full-PPR points. We wrote 27.66 for Week 7. See our number against the season average for the top ten running backs.
Fantasy Risers and Fallers: Bowers Up, Mahomes Down2026-10-25 · Brock Bowers rose 2.83 and Patrick Mahomes fell 2.24 in our full-PPR numbers from Week 6 to Week 7. See all 16 biggest movers, written before kickoff.
How to Grade a Fantasy Pick: Win, Loss or Push Rule2026-10-25 · ProDraftStats scores every pick against his season average: win, loss, or push within 1.5 points. Misses stay on the card; Week 1 2026 stays blank.
ESPN Fantasy Projections vs. ProDraftStats: Side by Side2026-10-25 · See ESPN's projection beside ours, never blended, so the gap can be checked. Ours is written down before kickoff, and the gap stays grey until it's earned.
Fantasy Draft Value Map: See Where Tiers Break2026-10-25 · A ranked draft list shows order, not distance. See how a value map shows tier breaks and where our board and your room disagree.
Does a Depth Chart Climb Mean a Backup Will Break Out?2026-10-25 · 151 skill players changed depth-chart rank in 30 days; 14 climbed into the top two. Here's the count, and why we don't call it a breakout.
Week 8 Deep League Stashes: Projection vs Season Average2026-10-25 · Five deep names project 3.61 to 4.81 above their season averages in live Week 8 full-PPR desk numbers. See what the gap means and how to check usage first.
Brock Bowers Week 8 Projection: Why 14.81, Not 20.552026-10-25 · Our Week 8 number for Brock Bowers is 14.81, under his 20.55 average and still the top of five tight ends on our card. Week 8 numbers are live, not sealed.
How Far Off Is the Betting Line on Team Points?2026-10-25 · The betting line misses team scores by about nine points (RMSE 8.969), so a three-point gap with it is small. Here's how to read a gap.

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