PRODRAFTSTATS™PRODRAFTSTATS™A season average is a record, not a forecast. Here is where our number landed instead.
Jahmyr Gibbs averages 30.74 points per game in full-PPR. Our Week 7 number for him was 27.66, written down before kickoff. A season average is not a forecast, and nine of our top ten running backs landed under their own.
If someone in your league chat quotes Jahmyr Gibbs’s 30.74 points per game at you like it’s a forecast, push back: it isn’t one. Season averages are a record of what already happened, and our number for his Week 7, written down before kickoff, was 27.66, about three points under. What that means for you: our number is a price for one week, not a verdict on him. The same thing hit nine of our top ten running backs, and Gibbs is only the loudest case. The order of the list moves too, and that part is right below.
Gibbs is the loudest case, but he is not alone. These are the ten running backs at the top of our Week 7 list, with his season average (points per game this season) and our number for the week.
| RB | Team | Season avg | Our number | Our number minus avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 30.74 | 27.66 | −3.08 |
| Kenneth Walker III | KC | 27.60 | 24.63 | −2.97 |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | 21.42 | 20.73 | −0.69 |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | 20.33 | 19.12 | −1.22 |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | 19.75 | 18.85 | −0.90 |
| Kyren Williams | LA | 19.83 | 18.79 | −1.04 |
| Derrick Henry | BAL | 19.47 | 18.33 | −1.14 |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR | 19.62 | 18.01 | −1.61 |
| Javonte Williams | DAL | 18.17 | 17.24 | −0.92 |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV | 16.73 | 16.87 | +0.13 |
The last column compares our number with the player’s own history. It is not a comparison with ESPN, a betting market or ownership, and no ownership data sits behind it. A number under a season average is a price tag on expectations. It is not a sit call.
Because our numbers don’t move in lockstep with the averages, the order of the list changes. Ranked by season average, Kyren Williams (19.83) sits ahead of Jonathan Taylor (19.75), and Hubbard (19.62) sits ahead of Derrick Henry (19.47). Once our number replaces the average, both pairs swap: Taylor at 18.85 edges Williams at 18.79, and Henry at 18.33 passes Hubbard at 18.01. Hubbard drops from seventh by season average to eighth by our number.
Jeanty goes the other way: he is the one back in the group whose number for the week sits above his season average, 16.87 against 16.73.
Week 8 numbers are separate. We have no results for these picks and claim none. When results come, every claim is scored against the frozen pre-kickoff table after the games, misses included.
Send this to the league chat member who keeps quoting a running back’s season average as if it were a forecast.
Source: ProDraftStats desk.
No. His 30.74 points per game is a record of games already played. Our Week 7 number, written down before kickoff, was 27.66.
Nine of our top ten. Ashton Jeanty was the exception, at 16.87 against a 16.73 average.
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