PRODRAFTSTATS™PRODRAFTSTATS™Value Gap measures a player against his own season, not against what your league thinks of him.
An up-triangle means our projection for a player's week tops his own full-PPR season average. It is not a read on your league or the market. Value Gap is that projection minus his average, and a gap beside a name is not an edge.
Somebody in your league chat may say an up-triangle next to a player’s name means everyone else is sleeping on him. That reading is not supported by the card, and you can be the one to say so. The card compares exactly two things: our number for his week and his own season average (points per game this season, full-PPR). It has no ESPN rank, no ownership percentage, and no consensus number anywhere on it. So a triangle says nothing about what your league thinks, and it isn’t an instruction for your lineup. What it does show is whether our number for this week sits above or below his usual, as a central estimate with real uncertainty around it. One week can land well above or below it.
The card takes our projection for the week and subtracts the player’s season average, scored in full-PPR. The result is the gap. Positive means our number sits above his average, and the card marks it with an up-triangle. Negative means our number sits below, and the card marks it with a down-triangle. The card lists the biggest gaps in both directions.
A negative gap describes our number against his history. It is not a sit call, and the lineup choice stays yours. A projection is also a central estimate for one week, so his actual score can land well above or below it. If you use the desk’s start/sit tool, it estimates your chance to win the matchup rather than raw points; it informs the decision and does not make it.
Here’s the catch: a gap beside a name looks like an edge, and it isn’t one.
An edge is your estimate against a rival estimate of the same thing, and the rival carries information yours doesn’t. Other managers, sportsbooks and consensus rankings are rivals. None of them is on this card. Value Gap holds our number against the player’s past, and his past is something we already know.
Some fans may read an up-triangle as “everyone is sleeping on this guy.” That is a claim about other people’s estimates, and the card has none of them.
So what would a real comparison need? A week-by-week history of what the market said, written down before kickoff. We don’t have that for ownership or consensus projections yet, and that’s why the card leaves them out instead of faking them.
No Week 7 or Week 8 results are in yet, so we can’t tell you whether big gaps have been worth anything. The written-down record will show it once outcomes are scored; it has not yet. This explainer uses no Week 8 player numbers.
Send this to the league chat the next time someone says an up-triangle means a player is “undervalued.”
Source: ProDraftStats desk.
It means our number for the week sits below the player's own season average, a negative gap. It describes our number against his history. It is not a sit call, and the lineup decision stays yours.
No. The card compares only our number for his week and his own season average in full-PPR. It has no ESPN rank, ownership percentage, or consensus number, so a triangle says nothing about what your league thinks.
We can't say yet. No Week 7 or Week 8 results are in. A projection is a central estimate with real uncertainty.
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